(OGTOBER 24, 1988 James Martin the describes most significant current trends in computer hardware and ' software and ties these trends to future devel- opments in tech- nology. Rapid ad: vances in com- puter technology are providing sig- nificant opportu- i nities to restruc- ture your business and leapfrog your competition. These advances include the development of powerful new tools and life-cyele processes that can be used to build strategic information systems and . improve all aspects of the application: development process. Older application-development tech- nologjes such as third- and fourth-gener- ation languages are being replaced by much more powerful technigues. The most promising new development tech- MARTIN nologies are: highly parallel computers; < parallel inferencing technigues; high- speed optical fibers; optical disks; ad- vanced microchip technology; neurocomputers; integrated CASE (1- CASE), information engineering; expert- % system tools; advanced development methodologies; object-oriented languages; and textbase management systems 'This series of columns, which began last. week with examines the major changes that are likely to oceur in a wide range of tech- ' : nologies over the next 35 years. Each column in the series focuses on develop- ments expected within a five- or 10- year time span, extending to the year 2020. This one summarizes develop- : ments expected to occur in the late ' 19804. Future Implications For years, | have used an informal model of future technology to track ex- . pected developments in individual com- ponents of computer technology and predict how the interactions between these individual strands will produce en- tirely new products. Recently, this infor- mation on the growth rates, trends and re na ology mn integrat: ed into a fi a ot tireoie ras Mame nie function is to ex- ications of expected hard- ware and software technology. č Trends in Computer Hardware: By the end of the decade, widely used com- a a pana adl: computers: 1 million pelod pereš Modeling Technology: Trends for the | the expected increase in the speed of | 1980s include widespread distribution of "Modeling Technology: A -: guide to the Future" (Page 43, Oct. 17), " | ill be closely integrated with the back- mentation- Pace 35 PG WEEKNAPPLIGATION DEVELOPMENT | Late 1980s tegration with the conventional business processing environment. Early expert: system tools were expensive; they ran on non-standard environments such as LISP machines, and they reguired spe- cialized skills in knowledge engineering. Current expert-system tools are inex- pensive, run on personal computers and are easy to use. They interface closely with conventional operating ,, and TP monitor, access corporate databases and integrate cleanty with the business processing environment. Expert systems are becoming a standard com- ponent of data-processing applications. Standards: The movement toward standard computer-system environments is accelerating. SOL will become a wide- ly used standard for access to relational databases. The introduction of IBMs System Application Architecture (SAA) will provide standard ways for applica- tion software to access databases and networks and will support standard forms of user access to computers. Information-systems professionals may use the Presentation Manager and Communication Manager components of 05/2 to impose controls and standards on distributed networks of PCs. For many organizations, the rapid proliferation of personal computers has resulted in chaotic management of PC resources and lost control of distributed PC networks by professional IS manage- ment. m. OS/2 offers both end users and IS (] managers the opportunity to control the operation of distributed PC networks the CASE market. Forward/reverse engi- neering tools will provide an integrated solution for the maintenance of existing applications, as well as the development: of new ones. Although traditional CASE tools ad- dress only the portion of the IS effort toward development of new applica- tions, they fundamentally change future maintenance costs by building systems that are easy to modify. Reverse engineering tools-are designed to convert low-level data definitions and unstructured, spaghettilike code into high-level structures. 'These high-level data and process structures can then be used in a forward-engineering process to generate normalized data definitions and structured code for the same or a different environment. Currently, tools exist that can restruc- ture spaghetti code, but do not generate high-level specifications of the code. Oth- computers through the year 2020. In the next three years, microcomputers of 5 mips and RISC-architecture processor chips of 15 mips will come into use. CD ROM providing as much as 650M bytes of read-only memory will become widely available as a primary medium for the storage of large information bases. Additional computer technology intro- duced during this period will include the first tal 'neurocomptiters, com" mercially attractive parallel computers, and highly parallel database machines. Significant changes in software tech- nology that are expected by the late integrated CASE tools, introduction of reverše-engineering tools and the routine integration of expert systems with the conventional information-systems envi- ronment. Integrated CASE Tools: Integrated d0 tips 1 tips 100 bips do bips vironment. Users will be asked to oper- ate within the constraints and standards enforced by OS/2 and SAA. In return, . users will receive professional manage- ment of file servers and communication interfaces, as well as controlled access to corporate databases and distributed coramunication networks. The appropri- ate application of standards provides both end users and IS managers with a win-win situation. Strategic Business Systems: In the near future, organizations will increas- ei regard computers and information systems as a strategic weapon. Applica- tions will be sought that enable a SR ration to use computer systems to gain a strategic advantage. The term "mission-critical" is used to describe on-line strategic systems which integrate critical aspects of the opera- tion of an enterprise. If the system fails, a vital portion of the enterprise stops funetioning until the system is back in operation. Mission-critical systems re- guire highly reliable computers, includ- ing networks and databases which oper- ate continuously. : 1 bips 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 David Hamum Expected by 1990 is the widespread distribution € of CASE tools and the routine integration of expert systems with conventional IS. ije Ek CASE workbenches will support all as- pects of KLA oven development process, inclut byster planning, anal- ysis, design, code generation, documenta- er available tools can convert data defi- nition language (DDL) statements ino! high-level data structures, but do not re- Rea A raba structure process code. In the near fu- The James Martin Productivity Series, tion generation, da! genera! Ri kih ski sorto pasje se generation and te na will be available that convert Perka available th ih High Predel, at 5 a w-level data definitions and pro- tivity Software H fa si ront-end planning, analys cess code into high-level structures that TI na pleča pla sodba Mass. (617) 639-1958. For information ponents of these eta ti please contact (in the Unit- glista and Canada) Technology m msfer Institute, 741 10th St., Santa onica, Calif. 90402 (213) 394-8305. m pracs o opame 2 NewSt, Carn- ma deo ze )BX United Kingdom can then be used to regenerate th plication or malntaln the application at a high level, Current CASE tools provide only a portion of this future capability. Expert Systems Integration: In the end code, database and facilities. — within a professional, well-supported.en-....