Pn io A

ion Will Greate Jobs,

ZAJ

V Inspite of this historical precedent, '..
' its important for society to maintain '/:
something reasonably. close to full em- ',
», ployment. KEM Va '
V. Its likely that we can maintain cl
'to full employment because the number. -
V of jobs in the service sector today (such
as the information and entertainment
lisi industries) is steadily elimbing," | "%Y sets, multifiber optical trunks, optical

V For example, as we get high-definition.;';, switching, intelligent networks and so
7. television, Ka-band satellites and fiber: i/4 Von, telecommunications is undergoing a

| optic communication links to the home, //' wholesale transformation. ; ''
we can pick up hundreds of television | We need to understand what telecom-

channels. A lot of work will be reguired % munications will look like in 2000 or !
|to create television programs for this fu-' - 2010, given the technology we'Te devel-

computing and jobs are going to look
like by the year 2000. It's important for
universities to understand the effect of
3X technology on the changing mix of jobs
in the future.

With the introduction of wideband
packet switching, broadband Integrated
Services Digital Network (ISDN) chip

ei,

, ture society. "'  oping now. J
Se j "Television is very people-intensive, :/%':'" What telecommunications regulations
implications for business and society." and it's the type of work that can't be. 5: need to be established?

Actually, I prefer not to say "artificial,
intelligence." A better phrase is "auto:;:':
mated reasoning," suggesting that a'
computer reaches conclusions by, reason:
ing in an automated fashion." 5"

'There are a great many applicatio:
and implications for artificial intelli:
gence in the future. 'The combination o!
artificial intelligence and robotics will
automate many simple, routine, repro-

Preparing for Future Technology
And a Phenomenal Rate. of Change

The Major Trends:

Automated reasoning
and robotics

Job growth in the
service sector

Effective teaching
for future technology

ducible tasks.

What Can Be Automated '' '-
We can automate tasks reguiring very
complex calculations and logic, the ex:
pertise for which can be reduced to ;
rules. It's possible today to automate "13:
many clerical and financial support jobs,''

| although we haven't automated the jobs,
of many professionals. However, in th

' future, any task in which expertise can''":
be reduced to rules or tasks that reguire::
—a vast amount of knowledge can. i

H

Standards for open
architecture in
telecommunications

What tasks won't be automated? Ar:
tistic efforts or tasks performed by'high::
ly creative people—those, for instance;
reguiring human empathy and under:
standing: the job.of the salesman, leader,

mu:
- sician. MJU Uipjeee BUNOI
A large proportion of today's jobs "z

about 40 percent of all Americans w SJE anni
employed in the manufacturing sector universilies dont seem to have caught up
of the economy: But according to some with computing ui let alone a vision of what

projections, it's likely that by about the
year 2015 only 1.5 percent of Americans ;
will be in the manufacturing sector,
Will this cause massive unemploy- ''
ment? If most factories are automated,"
and if we have an enormous amount of
competition from countries where labor %/"
is cheap, isn't this golng to cause major,
problems? ta CAb rni poe ik
Not necessarily. We've already seen " ," And well be moving into d'v
such a transition in agriculture. One sta- ' ' electronic books, where you can select"! governed by the Brooks Act, which
tistic which is rather surprising to us to-; Z any subject and branch into related mai" mandates an evolution to open architec-
day is that in 1900 about 50 percent of %! terial in video, VA//'tures to be implemented with the Open
Americans worked on farms, ' " ' "lsiua/' 1! Systeros Interconnect, (OS Reference
'That proportion steadily declined to/faw odel and ISDN''
about 20 percent after World War Il, "Yi

1" What; impact will those regulations

4 have on the operatorš of public and pri-

V, /vate telephone and telecommunications
tworksti!., :!'

in 1992, our 'communications will be

E Nia! But to move to open architectures, we
dropping much lower in the 1960, until /;. In an era of rapidly ehanging techno]
today only about 1.5 percent of Ameri". ogy, what should universities be teachi
ans work on farms. So, the percentage /% ' ing now? Mirai zrla") mij
of the labor force in the manufacturing "4! 4" Unfortunately, universities don't semi / that are certified by

sector is likely to drop to about 1.5 per: <. to have caught up with cormputing in/jy;
Cent by the year 2015.< 4...) the 19708, let alone a vision sva

Reja

3.

ot Unemployment |

". The danger

' weapons themselves are the command-

|. The Brooks Act states that it will be
illegal for any government department

to build a telecommunications network
using eguipment that has not been certi:
fied to support an open architecture.
'This will lead to vast networks in which
millons of computers can be connected
together in an open environment.

'. From our current perspective, future
technological advances seem limitless.
However, as these advances očcur, we
need to ask: What could go wrong?
What are the worst things that could
happen?

One of the worst scenarios is our acci-
dentally drifting into another Cuban
missile crisis or some other type of crisis
in the Middle East.

Perhaps a breaking away of peripher-
al parts of the Soviet Union might; cause
great unrest in Poland or behind the
Jron Curtain.
is that we might drift into
a situation in which events fly out of
control, and we could find ourselves at
risk of nuclear war.

Where the Danger Really Lies
€ Much more important than nuclear

and-control computer systems, which set
the pattern for events that could lead to
an inadvertent nuclear war.

Today's command-and-control systems
are referred to as "meta-stable," which
means that, initially, the systems are ex-
tremely safe and well-locked.

However, if we move toward a serious
crisis, we have to start taking the locks
off. We then move from a failsafe situa-
tion to a "faikdeadly" situation.
€ Our technology is dangerous not: be-

|. cause of the missiles themselves but be-

cause of the command-and-control sys-
tems we've built. Therefore, as technical
professionals, we should be looking at
the changes we can make in technology

| to prevent the worst scenarios from

happening.
We're at one of the most extraordi-

| nary moments in history. Rather than

drift into nuclear catastrophe, we have
tne opportunity to use rapidly develop-
ing technology to make an entirely dif-
ferent and better society.

! "The computer field is going to be the
most exciting industry in which you
could possibly work during the next 20
years. If we look at the model of future
technology I mentioned earlier, were
now moving into a period of time in
which the rate of change is going to be
phenomenal, and wed better be pre:
pared for it.

Next week Tll begin a series of four
articles on ISDN—an information net:
work of the future that integrates voice,
text, data and video in an open-commu-
nications architecture. H

MBENEN nniIm$v m ui sie,
The James Martin Productivity Series,
an information service updated guar-
is available through High Pro-
ductivihy Software Inc., of Marble-
head, Mass. (800) 242-1240. For infor:
mation on seminars, please contaci (in
the United States and Canada) Tech:
nology Transfer Institute, 741 10ih St.,
Santa Monica, Calif. 90402 (213) 394-
8305. In Europe, contact Savani, 2
New St, Carnjforth, Lancs., LA5 9BX
United Kingdom. (0524) 734 505.

i