IE A Cr z
- | A a o ra"

"ai g se LI
ši PRE,
4 zi—a ed ila
z s z J
BO oe em ČN OE

future.

ligence technolo-

gy is growing at
a furious rate

MARTIN

portant strategic

| implications f or business and society.
Actually, I prefer not to say "artificial

intelligence." A better phrase is 'auto- >

 mated reasoning," suggesting that a tali
on--
kjač stik sžiy

computer reaches conclusions by r
ing in an automated fashion. ''.

There are a great many applications

and implications for artificial intelli- >"

gence in the future. The combination of .

artificial intelligence and robotics will ':

automate many simple, routine, repro-:

Bu:
a a aj
ir SE K
h je. V PAL pa kd ar, na h ij
il

be reduced to rules or tasks that reguire

a vast amount of knowledge can be:/::

automated.

What tasks won't be automated? Ar-$ KI
tistic efforts or tasks performed by high-

ly creative people—those, for instance, :
reguiring human empathy and under-

standing: the job of the salesman, leader, i

film director, orchestra conductor, mu-:
sician. keto | my Te. Ke
A large proportion of todays jobs
may become automated. But how fast
will this happen? And what effect will
it have onsociety? '':-.
Obviously, the effects will be dramatic

and will happen pretty rapidly within

the next 20 years. toabiina |

Look at manufacturing in the 1950s—
about 40 percent of all Americans were
employed in the manufacturing sector.
of the economy. But according to some
projections, it's likely that by about the
year 2015 only 1.5 percent of Americans
will be in the manufacturing sector. .

Will this cause massive unemploy-
ment? If most factories automated,
and if we have an enormous amount of
competition from countries where labor
is cheap, isn't this going to cause major
problems?

Not necessarily. We've already seen
such a transition in agriculture. One sta-
tistic which is rather surprising to us to-
day is that in 1900 about 50 percent of
Americans worked on farms.

That proportion steadily declined to
about 20 percent after World War II,
dropping much lower in the 19605, until
today only about 1.5 percent of Ameri-
cans work on farms. So, the percentage -

of the labor force in the manufacturing »

sector is likely to drop to about 1.5 per-
cent by the year 2015. | i

H

Artificial-intel-

and promises to
have some im-

We can automate tasks reguiring very
complex calculations and logic, the ex-
pertise for which can be reduced to?
rules. It's possible today to automate"'«y:-
many clerical and financial support jobs,
- although we haven't automated the jobs
of many professionals. However, in the ::'
— future, any task in which expertise can:

na z m | 5 DRA vsta sd PER, hi, ozem giji? de.
a Ee i, rud ANAA | 3

z E: ua zej le m : ke
ima a MAŠE z te dka Mad BITI, pi SATE

pat. te zdi upa Vi 1 omizje jc. ; sa EL

be.
k,"
Hi

Mat Z
Y pio ka
- maj!
ič z
DE
odi

k: NET Mea, as a
x maja ič ii m a kiji s

milja | xi Od e aj i
- h ka le: ; pe z
se oe | |

| 4 di j b š
| - I m ue H ee

" al Uu. s s

ča

1 . Ma ra F .i a - - esa
a 4 t gr ab J X ih ge he " k si MREA je ne H k k
ne bo : s ve, edi si a sei ka 5 dil ale
m Na ' (

ži Et ša gibi! ug zs G kp SAM
j y' dai ane uaicee
ja teh the year 2000. Its important lor.

SU — i s: h s ta g zet si ki ni za zma! r dci roka udi : ! 4 h i fin
TL die: PEž5— zao — ] Ne ME a E "alela! x t k " —.. h k ; h ' sli
poe se 4 s - h i ! E i |! k

A
si
čij "
fe,
ea

Ca
- ne zni
Mo— dai
" ge
ter Sa id a
s
aa, saj
si r—, a s xi
Hi : š k
s Hi či
balee jese
| E:.
| ei
! x
J z mi krit
- em, a vra gi
J N, "4
Mi | Ni.

Edi
[i
srk A pak: f.

AMI je

ij
m
ia

ployment. ši:

— Its likely that we can maintain close
to full employment because the number
of jobs in the service sector today (such
as the information and entertainment
industries) is steadily climbing. |

For example, as we get high-definition
television, Ka-band satellites and fiber-
optic communication links to the home,
we can pick up hundreds of television .. stand v
channels. A lot of work will be reguired.:": munications will look like in 2000 Or

— to create television programs for this fu- | 2010, given the technology we re devel-
ture society. iijin« v 5vsveno |, Oping now. kkji

| What telecommunications regulations
need to be established?

in the future.

With the introduction of wideband
packet switching, broadband Integrated
Services Digital Network (ISDN) chip
sets, multifiber optical trunks, optical
switching, intelligent, networks and so
on, telecommunications is undergoing a
wholesale transformation.

We need to understand what telecom-

- Television is very people-intensive, .
and its the type of work that cant be

ze
|

Preparing for Future Technology.
And a Phenomenal Rate of Change |

s H z ži
di

ak?
šota ei
mil "
s

The Major Trends:
e Automated reasoning
and robotics ič:

e Job.arowth in the.
service sector

sr
'
ai.
m

e Effective teaching
for future technology

prodiv k
; w j
- bi?
t: Ax E.
di no. Hi

je Standards for open
— architecture in
telecommunications

"m.
L)
rej o%.
tor

li
ShE

s
Pa di.

UN fortunately, universities don't seem to have caught up
with computing in the 19706, let alone a vision of what
- computing and jobs are going to look like by the year 2000.

automated. We're likely to see the televi-
sion, entertainment and information
businesses converge, creating many new
jobs in these sectors.

And we'l be moving into a world of.
electronic books, where you can select
any subject and braneh into related ma-
terial in video, speech or other media.
The preparation of. material in electron:
ic form will reguire a high level of ef-

£ort and human creativity.

In an era of rapidly changing technol-
ogy, what, should universities be teach-
ing now? im ivali an 5,

- Unfortunately, universities don t, seem
to have caught up with computing in
the 19705, let alone a, vision of. what

" What impact will those regulations
have on the operators of public and pri-
vate telephone and telecommunications
networks?

In 1992, our communications will be
governed by the Brooks Act, which
mandates an evolution to open architec-
tures to be implemented with the Open

' Systems Interconnect (OSI) Reference

Model and ISDN.

—. But to move to open architectures, we
must have standards, and those stan:
dards must be controlled.

| Standards will lead to the manufac-
ture of products that are certified by
the National Institute of Standards and
'Technology. '

Lo
| U |
l
Nodi | KE | i' | |
wi 4 Ma |
ji se, | PP ,
DEA (Rana, bi bad k!

"Not Unemploy

jobs are going to look. se

EEEEE gehnology on the čhanglng mix of jobs

— The Brooks Act states that it will be
illegal for any government department
to build a telecommunications network
ising eguipment that has not been.

fied to support an open architecture.
This will lead to vast networks in which
millions of computers can be connected
together in an open environment.

From our current perspective, future
technological advances seem limitless.
However, as these advances occur, We
need to ask: What could go wrong?

What are the worst things that could
happen? eo

One of the worst scenarlos IS 0Ur acci-
dentally drifting into another Cuban a
missile crisis or some other type of Crisis
in the Middle East.

Perhaps a breaking away of peripher-

-al parts of the Soviet Union might cause

great unrest in Poland or behind the
iron Curtaln.

The danger is that we might drift into
a situation in which events fly out of
control, and we could find ourselves at
risk of nuclear war.

Where the Danger Really Lies
Much more important than nuclear
weapons themselves are the command-
and-control computer systems, which set
the pattern for events that could lead to

— an inadvertent nuclear war.

Today s command-and-control systems
are referred to as "meta-stable,. which
means that, initially, the systems are ex-
tremely safe and wellocked.

However, if we move toward a serious
crisis, we have to start taking the locks
off. We then move from a fail-safe situa-
tion to a "fail-deadly" situation.

Our technology is dangerous not, be-
cause of the missiles themselves but be-
cause of the command-and-control sys-
tems we've built. Therefore, as technical
professionals, we should be looking at
the changes we can make in technology
to prevent the worst scenarios from
happening.

We're at one of the most, extraordi-
nary moments in history. Rather than
drift into nuclear catastrophe, we have
the opportunity to use rapidly develop-
ing technology to make an entirely dif-
ferent and better society.

The computer field is going to be the
most exciting industry in which you
could possibly work during the next 20
years. If we look at the model of future
technology I mentioned earlier, were
now moving into a period of time in
which the rate of change is going to be
phenomenal, and we'd better be pre-
pared for it.

Next week Ill begin a series of four
articles on ISDN—an information net:
work of the future that integrates voice,
text, data and video in an open-commu-
nications architecture. H

The James Martin Productivity Series,
an information service updated guar-
terly, is available through High Pro-
ductivity Software Inc., of Marble-
head, Mass. (800) 242-1240. For infor-
mation on, seminars, please contact (in
the United States and, Canada) Tech-
nology Transfer Institute, 741 10th St,
Santa Monica, Calif. 90402 (213) 394-
8305. In Europe, contact Savant, 2
New St., Carnforth, Lancs., LA5 9BX
United. Kingdom (0524) 734 505.

Dina Sre Sem O adm