"kem dija di James Martin | the early 1990s using a model . of future tech- '' ' nology. k: !.. Major changes hardware tech- MARTIN | ' ing just beyond », ustij the horizon. ': Imagine the improvement in produc- tivity possible with desktop computers armed with processing power of 15 mil-, lion instructions per second (mips), spe-i i4 cialized parallel-processing chips, infer- :. ence processor chips, neurocomputer '- chips, massively parallel machines mi widespread cooperative processing. Insightful managers will have the chance to use these major technological | changes to restructure the business, dra-; matically increase productivity and use i: 'in computer. '" dia v, Va bes nema ane ti — Parallel Sinje di grow in power. and popularity as more and more man- agers realize that the future of comput«;' ing lies in parallel machine architec:''' tures. However, there will be a great; di- versity of parallel architecture and no. consensus on which will become the ki) dominant architecture of the future. Cooperative processing: The biggest change in computing in the 1980s was ' the spread of the personal computer: — The most significant change in the early | 1990s will be the growth of cooperative -' processing, in which a user's machine on ; nology are KOOM A b — the desk cooperates in intricate navio s with more powerful machines. Transmission rates: Optical fibers,. > will be used inc zasingly to provide ,; Intelligent information retrieval: The personal computer user will be con- Modeling "Technology; zn for the arly 1990s OOCTOBER 31, 1988 that are mathematically or logically , provable and on using rule-processing to fronted with a deluge of data on optical | validate the system designs. discs and magnetic storage subsystems used as servers attached to local area networks (LANSs). By the early 19905, artificial-intelli- gence technigues will be widely em- ployed to help the user find and employ reguired information. Highly parallel search engines will become important components of LAN-connected database SETVETS. Computer software: The complexity of software will grow steadily. By the early 1990s, common sizes for large pro- grams, in million lines of code (M loc), will be: large commercial applications, Methodologies will be developed that enable business professionals to formu- late business procedures and reguire- ments in the form of expert-system rules. These rules will be used directly with rule-based processing systems to : build applications. End users can vali- date that the system is doing what they want and can change its behavior by changing the rules. Application standards: The early 1990s will see a major effort to achieve open architectures, open networks, stan- dards for database access, standard forms of user interaction, standards for languages that achieve full portability, standard forms of CASE repository rep- resentation and standard forms of knowledge representation. IBM's SAA (Systems Application Ar- chitecture) will have matured and will be widely accepted. It will provide uni- form methods for application software to access databases and networks, as well as standard forms of user access to computers. End-user dialogues increas- information for strategic advantage. A major feature of the early 1990s 7" will be an international race for oma nance in the ability to manufacture chips with submicron features. Using uki 4; traviolet etching technigues, the diame-?- d ter of a feature on a chip will drop to' a between 0.6 and 0.8 of a micron by the tai ingly will use standard interfaces such as IBM's Common User Access (CUA). : Automated tools will assist in the build- ing of common user interfaces. Languages: Fourth-generation lan- guages (4GLs) will evolve in multiple | ways, becoming increasingly integrated s and powerful. By the early 1990s, many RSKEA, early 1990s, thereby permitting a singleji te Al. supercomputers - of these | will be integrated — zid. mass-produced memory chip to contain Soria — with CASE front ends and will i incorpo- " [o " 100 million components and a micropro- MEZNE | — rate rule-based processing and inference Powerful single-user — cessor chip to contain l milliori gompodi,. | A.I. workstations nents. sze a Improved microprocessor technolosy 4 js? will permit widely used medium-priced " bi computer systems to operate at 15 mips,iš high-end personal workstations at 100: mips, top-of-the-line mainframes at DOO mips, top-of-the-line supercomputers at : 40 billion floating-point instructions per second (flops) and large artificial-intelli-. gence inference engines at 500K logical h inferences per second (lipe). "TRE uči alized Microprocessors: Much ii ie of this incrembe to ped vilk s oKI rak | ii through machine designs based '';'''f:y (ij fi |: ši) -engines. Many end-user languages will become application-specific or profes- sion-specific, incorporating the languages of finance, engineering, science, produc- tion control and so on. Programming will be accomplished without, the need to remember commands, mnemonics or punctuation, using pull-down menus and | an intuitive human interface. | ". Growth of end-user computing: An important continuing trend throughout the 1990s will be the rapid spread of computer literacy among white-collar workers. By the mid-1990s, the number of personal computers per white-collar — worker in a typical advanced corpora- | tion will rise to 0.7 or higher. In the ; same period, half of all computer hard- | ware and software expenditures in typi- Personal fo sevrih s una č :, h ai k ki ba; ! s E ni j Rače dil j Mi m ei Hi s$A si a ai, YU oa Eta computers Wii je di La ns ; ks y zi Ke. iš. Ned ki 2d microprocessors such as :..,.i.ji hit speči Reduced Instruction Set Com- in al: puter (RISC) chips. Specialized LISP'' chips will drop in price, and high-speed David Hanrum neja ii da ap abčja čni a tovi K. pa aj fina, en the 1980s, the. VREE RTDET in dom putina en da | was the PC. For ihe. 19905, the most significant step LISP coprocesso will A; one nie rs find wider use KA AP hi | will be the g ih, cal advanced corporations will be devot: | Very dl be-SCale integration (VLSD di Buiiji | ; imi seni fraj? mal zga NUTU li Vi vh o/ Nani processing. sa ced to end: -User computing. - neurocomputer chips, with half a mil- vt/44 ia: leta t izi Vrij 0 , Next week, we will explore the tech- lion neurons and connections, will be ;::«. %/ > OBVE EUL Deja see ". nology of the late 1990s. Topics include combined on neurocomputer boards for: URNE ee bobirceri but | Major advances in computer technology 4 '.IM loc; large military projects, 2M | personal computers that will contain:2 ni "m. aš si Li h : : ) Vami ; m; ib, Pali Vi oma na Kota a La s a pe ah fak ja Meki P K » SL JE še 1 sise goča mai grič s im Fa gi "e ue E: sa iBiMuE i hi U "4. Fo a bene srez Lu a NI Ip ze ' ai TJ: sle pi. di a in s ZME Sai s. S nav, CE pod a rapa ni kesa V ni im nI 4 vne |