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s be d a | i i | HR k J ž i 4 [ii
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OE de Im spite of this historical precedent, € computing and jobs are going to look
AL This is the last | it's important for society to maintain : //' like by the year 2000. Its important for
ofa pik le reasonabiy, close to full em- ,., universities to understand the effect of
ai ai « po PployImen PRA MW VNO 3X technology on the changing mix of jobs
, computer tech. J/ > v Its likely that we can maintain close: in the fueabA anal
Sad | nologies that "|. to full employment because the number ,;- With the introduction of wideband
AE oka ku will have great / ' of jobs in the service sector today (such ''' packet switching, broadband Integrated
poti strateguc bi pola 88 the information and entertainment '"'%' Services Digital Network (ISDN) chip ':
Zem | tance in the., uni industries) is steddily climbing. | ' < |" sets, multifiber optical trunks, optical
Nal: future. RI PRE For example, as we get high-definition ;', switching, intelligent networks and so
z NE Artificial-intel-: " television, Ka-band satellites and fiber-''//" on, telecommunications is undergoing a
(- ligence technolo-  . optic communication links to the home, (5: wholesale transformation. : da
V gy is growing at' ; we can pick up hundreds of television ';;;" We need to understand what telecom-
ja furious rate čE ša channels. A lot of work will be reguired x munications will look like in 2000 or
MARTIN — and promises to '.., to create television programs for this fu-' - 2010, given the technology were devel-
! ki have some im- ..,: ture gociety. iii HRANO Meki ti | av ja? oping now'' ME? |
mava? portant strategic. ./- Television is very people-intensive, ;/':«' What telecommunications regulations
implications for business and society. '':. and it's the type of work that can't be: '"';' need to be established! ;
Actually, I prefer not to say "artificial .." | | ze |
jene. A better phrase is "auto:,:'-
mated reasoning," suggesting that aii s
ooinputet reaches conelusions by reason: ' Preparing for Future Technology
in an automated fashion." : "";. ŠA £ (
There are'a'preat many applicationa'i And a Phenomenal Rate. of Change
and implications for artificial intelli- "7" ki
gence in the future. The combination of v:
artificial intelligence and robotics will s ': The Major Trends:
automate many simple, routine, repro- pO
ducible tasks. : : :.' a S e Automated reasoning
SEE erltiso in and robotics

What Can Be Automated :'::::-.: H biči
—. We can automate tasks reguiring very <: ee zhe tip
complex calculations and logic, the ex:::' ; pr klen stoj!
pertise for which can be reduced to pogani Effective teaching
rules. It's possible today to automate ''; F: for future technology
many clerical and financial support jobs, ;":
| although we haven't automated the jobs, ::
of "many professionals. However, in the:i5'
future, any task in which expertise can:
be reduced to rules or tasks that reguirei:
-a vast amount of knowledge can berixo ii.
E automated. 7 MIT$N5ŠI s sna Vite
What tasks won't be automated? Ar-'"3'
' tistic efforts or tasks performed by'high::
ly creative people—those, for instance, Va
reguiring human empathy and under: i£/ii,
— standing: the job.of the salesman, leader; ;
film director, orchestra conductor, mudi.
A large proportion of today's jobs" ZAS
' may become automated. But how fast ;sii
will this happen? And what effect will pli
it have on society? Hit iiurjanse nos:
Obviously, the effects will be dramatic. ! češ dieti ožine zal it
| and will happen pretty rapidly withinifaičW/ či s /i diFY: SpOBRRV S ene oki VRBE UJE SE [UE U09. Maryelen Zavatsi
- the next 20 years." "'"''" foreign dra jh Haiti, poved HA ai KAVE A dl tij UI NA ie: a A

ki
a k ta poime na ka TI LP im.
a id iF ui pok | ; 1 MM
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j uf x 54 al k si a ui 4 kk: s
o a ia et radii
i a," ti obi Z bv Z TE ka, S sili l . iin
' 1: Te. s al | gih ješ % i kil si

Standards for open
architecture in
telecommunications ..

m

aa udi i EEA;
Li

. ; O DE Me, s fih LE Pike
Look at manufacturing in the 195OSI, SI 3

PETE

1 Ha

about 40 percent of all Americans were '5''"': Un for ji
employed in the manufacturing sector ii! "ži: — nj O ji

ši d

lj 0: zdi itie

rje ji HIT mono K.

1) don't seem to caught up

of the economy. But according to some!" with computi n the t
y miši with computing in the 19708, let

projections, it's likely that by about the"; alone a vision of what
Par 2015 only 15 percent of Americans <<. Computing and jobg are g Ding to look, ike by the year 2000.

l

will be in the manufacturing sector. sin Mei nk NE teč OSAL
j 5

a! PHERU
Le [i ii: i
i i k" Jih ž k Ča 4 udij Li is: j LEM ra 1
il] this cause massive unemploy- "tiči sist! vg a ibod ea eo € Aa V ii Kej
kisa A zabeli Nal v ERER ji y Hd idej ih] ME LE
su ČE Mi | Vidi Wii" ri lir k
i A z LA Mi 4" (

ment? If most factories are automated,"? 4 A A a k ie a RN a a |
and if we have an enormous amount o£...; automated. We're likely to see the televiy | What impact will those regulations
competition from countries where labor "/' sion, entertainment and information" ii, have on the operatorš of public and pri-
is cheap, isn't this going to cause major,s:«/ businesses converge, creating many new vate telephone and telecommunications
problems? ty dro ib riy pete avei jobs in these sectors.? znih VE ks k id |. networks?, SAMA, |
Not necessarily. We've already seen "" ?," And we'l be moving into d: world of; vih 'In 1992, our communications will be
such a transition in agriculture. One sta-» ; electronic books, where you čan select "4": governed by the Brooks Act, which
tistic which is rather surprising to us to-; 2 any subject and branch into related ma-,% mandates an evolution to open architec-
' day is that in 1900 about 50 percent of '3! terial in video, speech or other. media. /4//tures to be implemented with the Open
A mericans worked on farm. ' " "144 V2W'The preparation of. material in electront: 4 /' Systems Interconnect, (OSI) Reference
That proportion steadily declined to //4w' ic form will reguire a high level of ef-; 4: Model and ISDN'  .

E amnai
..

about, 20 percent after World War II, "'ivi fort and human creativity. hit li ueiyi But to move to open architectures, we

dropping much lower in the 1960, until ;;..: In an era of rapidly changing technol: dka "must have standards, and those stan:
today only about 1.5 percent of Ameri: %/%, ogy, what should universitieg be teach ( dards must, be controlled. Mo
mi work on farms. So, the percentage "ing now?" "1: bivsi! ea. Hi a alj ij' Standards will lead to the manulac-
si the no force in the manufacturing %/ / Unfortunately, universities don't seem:',/' ture of products that are certified by
žo Hezbe ely to drop to about 1.5 per: <; to have caught up with computing. K. (iE)) the National Institute, of Standards and
oka mon S the 19706, let alone a vision, of what 5 fm Technologyijj!i,4 | hi) OO
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ili Create Jobs, Not Unemployment

- This will lead to vast networks in which

: in the Middle East.

the pattern for events that could lead to

off. We then move from a fail-safe situa-
tion to a "faikdeadly" situation.

— cause of the missiles themselves but be-

jk

i

be "

pi

ti
mi
na
13
dj
i
4
4
;

— The Brooks Act states that it will be 4
illegal for any government department |
to build a telecommunications network

using eguipment that, has not been certi:

fied to support an open architecture.

millions of computers can be connected
together in an open environment.
— From our current perspective, future
technological advances seem limitless.
However, as these advances occur, we
need to ask: What could go wrong!
What are the worst things that could
happen?

One of the worst scenarios is our acci-
dentally drifting into another Cuban
missile crisis or some other type of crisis

pa. a ga ia

srp a noni BE ne gi

" hg ie o MP
ši zg odli E sud pe-

Perhaps a breaking away of peripher-
al parts of the Soviet Union might cause
great unrest in Poland or behind the

Jron Curtain.
The danger is that we might drift into

a situation in which events fly out of
control, and we could find ourselves at
risk of nuclear war.

Where the Danger Really Lies

Much more important than nuclear

weapons themselves are the command-

and-control computer systems, which set

an inadvertent nuclear war.

Today's command-and-control systems
are referred to as «meta-stable," which
means that, initially, the systems are eX-
tremely safe and well-locked.

However, if we move toward a serlous
crisis, we have to start taking the locks

Our technology is dangerous not be-

cause of the command-and-control sys-
tems we've built. Therefore, as technical
profesšionals, we should be looking at
the changes we can make in technology

'to prevent the worst scenarios from

happening. |
' We're at one of the most, extraordi-

: nary moments in history. Rather than

drift into nuclear catastrophe, we have
the opportunity to use rapidly develop-
ing technology to make an entirely dif-
ferent, and better society.

The computer field is going to be the
most, exciting industry in which you
could possibly work during the next 20
years. If we look at the model of future
technology I mentioned earlier, were
now moving into a period of time in
which the rate of change is going to be

- phenomenal, and we'd better be pre-

pared for it.

Next week Ill begin a series of four
articles on ISDN—an information net:
work of the future that integrates voice,
text, data and video in an open-commu-
nications architecture. š
The James Martin Productivity Series,
an information service updated guar-
terly, is available through High Pro-
ductivity Software Inc., of M arble-
head, Mass. (800) 242-1240. For infor-
mation on seminars, please contaci in
the United, States and, Canada) Tech:
nology Transfer Institute 741 10th St,

| Santa Monica, Calif. 90402 (213) 394-

8305. In Europe, contact Savant, 2
New St. Carnforth, Lancs., LA$ 9BX
United Kingdom (0524) 734 509.

|
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