- zm LI ž yi m poši a Lira s sa Pe a zli ji ai vne ME V ea EN ae AE nitmi paru ra VN Deka mosi, MAY 14, 1990 PC WEEKNAPPLIGATION DEVELOP MENT APPLIED INTELLIGENCE Faster, Cheaper, Smaller Is Still the Trend in Hardware smaller than those possible in main- | frames. With the introduction of PCs in | | - For example, an early PC cost about cessing, data collection, optimal routing, | This ts the $4,000 and was eguivalent to approxi- database processing, memory uka — the early 1980s, minis still retained an | 4, first in a series mately 0.3 million instructions per sec: tion, image processing, structur simula pesiant FOlE ir a multitiered comput- | go of articles on ond (mips). Today, the cost of a 386- tion and CAD/CAM operations. — ka hitecture. They were commonly A key industry based PC or Macintosh is also about Various forms of computers will ex- le SE da seen ental computing plat Mi ika trends affecting $4,000, but they're eguivalent to about 2 ploit parallelism. Multiple parallel pro- used ed as - p pe keč iN VE OCI be computer hard- or 3 mips. Thus, the relative cost for cessors will be used for transaction pro- a k ra ne ble on the PC. But now 1! ui! ! ware, software, PCs over the last eight years has de- cessing, search engines, dine pes stale A CTŠKA in local PC | rocess ing Il! NA database envi- clined by almost a factor of 10—and the chines, knowledge-base machines, with the increase in CE P( P mr IH | EN jH/ mm! ronments and cost will continue to drop. inference engines, image pr OCESSOTS, VEC- and netw orking cap an koza ske ti | | ERA v X (EME Communications The advances in chip technology will tor processors and other parallel imple- for minis Je bojnem: ihreeti Il | environments. A lead to the following improvements in mentations. In the f (latiti See zahbia re čanv | J AME G subseguent se- desktop machines: Relative to serial machines, parallel hardware arci taji a SARA | eh ries of articles ? Much higher computing power on the computers provide much greater through: — minis ene HO ei posla In M ARTIN wil demonstrate desktop; put, faster response time, lower cost, and mainf rames and networked l how these trends ?$ Continuing improvement in ease of the ability to handle extremely complex into fi ile servers. II are profoundiy | use; -. problems. To make use of these new tech- : The higher performance and lower costs of hardware will lead to special- ized processors that can handle complex computing environments. LISP-based coprocessors, neurocomputers and paral- affecting the evolution of new comput- er architectures, development method- ologies and, tools. Knowledge of the key industry trends Computers' Increasingly Powerful Future and an understanding of their impor- iN PCs Expeeted To Wield the Musele še lel-processing engines will be used for Al ji « applications. These processors will be duction and management; of high-pro- linked into the standard organizational computing environment through file servers (again, special processors) and high-speed communications networks (also serviced by specialized processors). One of the most profound changes in hardware is the gradual demise of the traditional mainframe computer. Large, central computers, such as the IBM Sys- tem/370, have been obsolescent; for years. They reguire numerous systems analysts to maintain complex layers of software and their cost. for mips is 100 times the cost of mips on a PC. Organizations are increasingly recog: nizing that they can cut maintenance costs, improve response time and reduce the cost of additional mips of processing power by moving applications from the mainframe to the desktop. PC Bound Applications that. are targets for downsizing to networks of PCs include transaction-processing applications and all software-development activities. In a few years, it will be inconceivable to use z expensive mainframe mips for software | development. All such development will ll | tance are critical to the successful intro- NA Of Today's Mainframes | AN, — |] In Six Years a TOTI AH s pra r—. ductivity tools, technology and method- IA ologies. 4h The rate of change in the computer [1 industry today is higher than it has been since the IBM 360 was introduced 20 years ago. Major upheavals are oc: curring throughout the industry, and the roles of the traditional mainframes and minicomputers are diminishing. These familiar systems are being replaced by vast networks of desktop computers and file servers. The future belongs to organizations skilled in providing solu- tions for the desktop-computing environ- ment, the database infrastructure and the network infrastructure. Three general trends continue to char- acterize the development of computing hardware: faster, smaller and cheaper. Throughout the 1980s, the computing platforms used shifted from powerful mainframes to minicomputers to person- al computers. That shift, will continue as the rate of change in computing archi- lectures accelerates. The figure illustrates the dramatic in- creases in computing power that will be- obi for mainstream comput- ers through the 1990s. As shown, in six move to the PC years the processing power of a PC will Larger central com ill sti si S RE entral computers will still be zi Šri to that of today's mainframe neeced for the sharing and distribution | By the end of th; SA TI S — of large corporate databases, as well as | a a ee Je decade, each of The computin lat form ns used have shifted f | Be for the control of extensive networks of rease of more than Zap ope in. Še D g Pp iii bodi siUJj Lucu Jrom powerjful PCs and file servers. To support Very Seje asian through anad. — Mainjrames to minicomputers to PCs. That will continue Rei A EN Pa eT: zač PD eh an ar S šč oo č e e central computers will. Np design that uses submicron.:— as the rate of change in computing architectures accelerates. highly parallel ariliče consisting of ea, gih arki deli zla | | thousands of parallel processors. The on ie bi vl a ČE San. In the last few Years alone, the PC z Multifunction PCs, automatic net- nigues, we need to exploit the inherent Next week, I will describe the major | has been t ondi (ro a e Pi working; parallelism in many common applications. trends in computer software. B appliance to a porta! VE ŠI esktop ? Ultra-high-speed LAN connections; Major breakthroughs in hardware will > - | notebook and Sta zaj SEVE plop toa € Multimedia PCs; | enable computers to head in fundamen: The concepts embodied in this arti- - Each transformatjon deli ? Real-time processing of speech input; tally new directions, such as ultra-paral cle are described in the H igh-Produc- tially the same Computing ša ulic zam: >? Megapixel, HDTV color display; lel processing, high-speed inference en- tivity Technology volume in The James predecessor but in a substantially smel ? Cheap, portable PCs with cellular gines, neural nets, programming using Martin Report Series. For more infor: er case. Similar size reductions are also "Communications; and powerful graphical icons, Al computing mation on this volume, call (617) 639- il occurring in powerful workst SE ? Powerful, inexpensive knowledge- and ultra-parallel knowledge bases. 1958. For information on seminars, j A Name and artificial-intelligence based processing, ; One result of the simultanecus in- contact (in the United States and Can- AL) inference engines. Much of the improvement in process- crease in processing capability and de- ada) Technology Transfer Institute | While the power of hardware contin. NE power will be gained through paral- cline in cost, is the fading importance of 741 10th St., Santa Monica, Calif. j oe to increase, the relative cost is rap- elism. Many problems now tackled using the minicomputer. 90402 ( 213) 394-8305. In Europe, con- | K y decreasing. The actual unit cost, Stoj technigues are inherently parallel. Minis were originally significant be- tact Savant, 2 New St. Carnforth, | owever, remains relatively constant. lese include information searches, cause they permitted the distribution of Lancs., LA5 9BX United Kingdom ' Sorting, merging, joining, transaction pro- computing resources in increments (0524) 734 505.